By many measures, the US economy is strong. But that’s not how most people are experiencing it. The costs of big-ticket items like health care, education, and housing have been out of reach for years. Now, everyday expenses like groceries and gas are stretching paychecks. For many working people, the promise that hard work leads to economic security already feels broken.
And now, there’s a seismic shift underway.
The AI economy is here – and it’s not just changing the way we look for a doctor, pay for a parking meter, or navigate daily life. It’s beginning to reshape how people do their jobs. In the next few years, AI’s impact on the labor market will accelerate. The question isn’t whether or when AI will change the economy, but who will benefit and who will bear the cost.
If AI hasn’t affected your job yet, it will soon. But AI won’t affect every job in the same way. Some roles will disappear, others will change, and still others will experience a boom. Those foot-in-the door, entry-level positions that so often become a pathway to a career are at risk of disappearing. As jobs in administrative support, customer service, and retail are restructured or reduced, traditional on-ramps to economic opportunity could also erode.
While AI will eliminate some jobs, it will change the day-to-day work of many others. By 2028, AI will reshape jobs across the economy with technology taking over anywhere from one-third to three-quarters of the tasks people spend their time on today, from scheduling and customer service to diagnostics and logistics. Already, health care workers are using AI-powered tools to diagnose and treat patients, and construction workers are relying on AI-driven software at the job site. As AI advances, workers will need to adapt and learn new skills to work with new technology.
While jobs change, entire sectors will grow quickly, creating significant new demand. Jobs building and maintaining AI infrastructure, like data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, and clean energy are likely to create hundreds of thousands of new opportunities.
AI will reshape work, but how workers and local businesses experience that shift isn’t predetermined. The decisions policymakers make about AI, and our workforce right now will determine both U.S. competitiveness, and whether working people can share in the gains of AI.
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle know that a strong workforce is part of what drives a strong economy. For more than 30 years, productivity has been the single largest determinant of global GDP. In the face of AI, supporting the workforce can’t mean, as it has for decades, giving lip service to workers and local businesses while making insufficient investments. AI creates both an opportunity and a responsibility to decide what kind of economy we want.
Right now, there are two conversations shaping the policy debate on AI. One focuses on competition and the global race to develop and deploy AI. Winning that race is essential to driving economic growth, national security, and long-term competitiveness. The other focuses on people and asks how we can ensure working people and families aren’t asked to pay the costs of this transition through lost wages, lost jobs, and lost opportunities.
But these aren’t separate conversations; they’re deeply connected. We can’t win a global AI race without a workforce that can build, deploy, and use these technologies. That will only happen if working people have real opportunities and the economic stability to adapt and thrive in an AI economy.
Right now, technological change is fast outpacing our public policies. If we fail to deliver strong AI workforce policy, AI’s costs will fall on workers and families first, but they won’t stop there. They’ll show up in higher costs for taxpayers, and in a weaker economy.
That’s because the workers at the center of this transition are the very people we’ll depend on for its success, from construction to manufacturing to health care. Working people in these industries will play a crucial role in building and maintaining the infrastructure that AI depends on, doing essential hands-on work that technology cannot replace, and harnessing AI to drive innovation and productivity.
While much of the conversation about AI focuses on its potential impact on higher-income white-collar workers with college degrees, the disruption will also be significant for working-class people, especially those in low-wage roles. People with lower incomes are already disproportionately impacted by the digital skill divide — a challenge that AI could exacerbate. Lower-wage workers tend to have less household income and savings to pay for upskilling, retraining, and the cost of living if their jobs change or go away. Working-class people also receive fewer private sector and public investments in education and training than college graduates, and have more precarious access to healthcare, childcare, and retirement savings.
As things currently stand, the AI transition depends on the workers facing the greatest structural barriers, in sectors already experiencing labor shortages, even as they have the fewest resources to absorb its costs.
When workers face economic instability, their families feel it first and most acutely. However, the impacts of large-scale disruption won’t be contained to individual households. They’ll ripple outward. As people cut spending on rent, groceries, and local services, small businesses and communities feel it too. Without stronger public policies, this will result in higher costs for everyone, slower and more unstable economic growth, and a workforce less able to meet the demands of an AI economy.
It doesn’t have to be this way. With the right policy choices, AI can be a catalyst for a stronger, fairer, and more inclusive economy. It can foster innovation by pairing technology with human judgment, creativity, and empathy, achieving outcomes neither could produce alone. And it can expand opportunity and improve people’s quality of life, rather than erode it. Realizing that potential will require meaningful investments in skills training, along with a broader set of policies that support workers through the transition and ensure they can share in the gains. That means helping people adapt to change and giving them the stability and opportunity to benefit from it.
At a time when many working people feel the old promises of work have gone unmet, the AI economy calls on us to build a new promise of work. Two-thirds of Americans say AI is a “serious” or “very serious” problem facing workers. But most aren’t rejecting this new technology. In fact, most Americans are open to working alongside AI as long as their skills, experience, and judgment are valued. People may be even more welcoming of an AI economy if our nation ensures that work delivers economic stability, agency, and a way to share the prosperity working people help create.
As AI begins to shape the lives and livelihoods of people and the day-to-day operations of local businesses, workforce policy must respond with transformational new strategies to build a strong, resilient, and equitable workforce. The reactive incrementalism that too often typifies workforce policy won’t meet the moment.
It’s one of the reasons National Skills Coalition launched A New Promise of Work – a national initiative to unite workers, learners, local business leaders, and practitioners in building and advancing a bold new workforce vision so that everyone has a fair shot at real economic opportunity.
As we build this policy agenda, here are key priorities that we think will shape A New Promise of Work in an AI economy:
Build the data infrastructure to understand and anticipate AI’s impact on work. We need timely, detailed data on how AI is affecting jobs, wages, industries, and different workers so people, businesses, and policymakers can anticipate disruption and respond effectively. Without it, decisions about workforce strategy, public investment, and career pathways won’t be as strong.
Make continuing skill-building a core feature of any policy response. Workers need a mix of foundational digital skills, AI literacy, and ongoing opportunities to upskill and reskill as work evolves. With accessible, affordable, and equitable ways to build skills throughout their adult lives, more people can adapt, advance, and share in the gains of a changing economy. This also means supporting small businesses, which employ half of the workforce, in adjusting to technological change in a way that helps workers upskill and advance.
Use AI deployment to expand good jobs. AI could enhance workers’ expertise, leading to higher pay, greater agency, and safer workplaces. Centering workers’ voices in how AI is designed and deployed can help improve job quality and productivity while limiting harmful use of the technology. AI won’t replace jobs centered on hands-on work, physical care, and human connection. Instead, AI can strengthen the quality and value of essential working-class careers.
Support stable transitions from job loss to re-employment. As work changes, people will need economic stability to make transitions, whether they’re training for a new job or building skills to adapt and advance in their current one. Providing that stability will require rethinking policies on income supports, access to health care and childcare, and unemployment and re-employment systems. It will also require ensuring that worker rights, anti-discrimination protections, and equal opportunity policies continue to safeguard workers.
Ensure workers share in productivity gains. Instead of using productivity gains only to cut costs, gains could be shared with workers in ways that improve their lives. That could include higher wages, employee ownership, more free time through new models of work, expanded opportunities for community service and civic engagement, and broader public services supported by economic growth.
The AI economy is already reshaping work, a trend that will accelerate in the years ahead. The choices our nation’s leaders make now will determine whether this transformation deepens existing inequalities or strengthens shared prosperity. While public policy won’t address every issue presented by such a significant shift, intentional workforce policies can equip and support workers to adapt to change and help them share in the gains they create. Our nation’s long-term economic outlook depends on it.
